There are few constants in American politics. But for many years, two states have been decidedly partisan: California has been blue, and Texas has been a deep, deep red.
But recently, many analysts are beginning to question that assumption. California will certainly remain blue, but Texas may move further left than it has in the past. And if those analysts are correct, the results could be disastrous for President Trump and the Republican Party.
Beto: Anomaly or Warning Sign?
The earliest signs of Texas’ potential move left may have already come. Beto O’Rourke mounted an unlikely challenge against incumbent Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. At the time, many believed it was because of Beto’s own innate charisma, mixed with Cruz’s general unpopularity.
But some are now wondering whether that might not be the case. According to a Politico report today, many believe that the Texas Republican Party is in trouble. And some, like Congressman Will Hurd, are reading the tea leaves and getting out of dodge. The only black Republican in the House of Representatives, Hurd recently announced that he would not be seeking reelection. But he won’t be leaving without giving a warning to his party.
“If the Republican Party in Texas doesn’t start looking like Texas, there won’t be a Republican Party in Texas,” Hurd told Politico. “Texas is indeed purple,” (solidly between Democrat blue and Republican red) he added.
But Hurd isn’t the only one who has that fear. Cruz himself has expressed similar concerns. On a recent interview with Ben Shapiro, he expressed his concerns that Texas is moving blue.
When Shapiro asked Cruz whether there was danger the state would move purple, the Senator responded: “absolutely. I think Texas is a battleground.” He went on to explain that President Trump’s rhetoric and presentation was turning off suburban women, one of the most significant voting blocks that could turn Texas blue.
A Crisis Scenario
If Texas turns blue in the 2020 election, President Trump has no prayer of reelection. The Lone Star state is second in the country to California in electoral votes, with 38 to its name. If the Democrats start the election with those combined 93 electoral votes, Trump will have no chance to catch up.
The media knows this, which is why they have so heavily pushed the narrative that Trump is directly responsible for the tragic violence in El Paso last weekend.
"Not only does he owe our city an apology but he owes us funding for his campaign event," says Texas State Rep. Cesar Blanco about President Trump's visit to El Paso. pic.twitter.com/WdbS7PVfRd
— The Situation Room (@CNNSitRoom) August 7, 2019
Texas is in the balance largely because, as Senator Cruz explained, President Trump turns off suburban women. If he has any hope at reelection, he needs to reverse that trend in a big way. Many suburban women were no more excited by Hillary Clinton in 2016 than they were by Trump. But with a better candidate in 2020, the Democrats will be poised to reel in more and more suburban voters, and possibly turn Texas blue in the process.